CI Example Plot

Surface Observations and Convective Initiation

My PhD thesis work investigates how assimilating standard surface weather observations at high spatial and temporal frequency may improve short-term storm-scale forecasts of convective initation.


Olympex Plots

Olympex Forecasting

As a lead forecaster for the Olympex Field Campaign, I've been creating forecast graphics to support operational weather briefings. These graphics include output from our UW Local WRF model runs, regional radar composites, and sounding plots.

View Forecast Page

Forecast Verification

Local Forecast Verification

What started as a project to help our UW WxChallenge forecast team has expanded into a long-term, forecast verification project that aggregates and verifies public and private point next-day point forecasts in an interactive, web-based environment. I have a work-in-progress sample website showing some of these verification statistics.

Forecast Verification (not guaranteed...)

EFA Example Plot

Ensemble Forecast Adjustment

I explored a method that allows new observations to rapidly update ensemble forecasts at the time of data assimilation. This method showed promise in improving 6-18 hour forecasts of surface temperature and pressure in global ensemble forecasts. I'm currently expanding this work to examine the potential for EFA to work with mesoscale ensembles. See the iPython Notebook demonstration below for a better example of how the method works.

iPython Notebook Demonstration


Smartphone Example Plot

Smartphone Pressure Observations

BAMS Paper

Masters Example Plot

Dense Pressure Observations for Improved Mesoscale Forecasts

MWR Paper